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Seasonal demand peaked at steam coal prices under downward pressure
Release time:
2018-02-26
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Recently, the 1801 contract of thermal coal futures rebounded relatively strongly, once breaking the important pressure level of 620 yuan/ton. In contrast to the futures market, the in stock market was flat. The author believes that the seasonal peak summer has passed, the demand for civil electricity will decline, and the industrial electricity consumption is also lower than in previous years. Meanwhile, coal supply is picking up. The downward pressure on thermal coal prices is greater. The seasonal demand for civil electricity peaks. From the seasonal changes in the demand for thermal coal, there are two peak demand seasons for thermal coal each year, one is the peak summer from July to August, and the other is the heating season in winter. From July to August, due to the hot weather, the demand for civil electricity
Recently, the 1801 contract of thermal coal futures rebounded relatively strongly, once breaking the important pressure level of 620 yuan/ton. In contrast to the futures market, the in stock market was flat. The author believes that the seasonal peak summer has passed, the demand for civil electricity will decline, and the industrial electricity consumption is also lower than in previous years. Meanwhile, coal supply is picking up. The downward pressure on thermal coal prices is greater.
Seasonal demand for civil electricity peaks
Judging from the seasonal changes in the demand for thermal coal, there are two peak demand seasons for thermal coal each year, one is the peak summer from July to August, and the other is the heating season in winter. From July to August, due to the hot weather, the demand for civil electricity surged, and the consumption of thermal coal by power plants increased. Since July 1, 2017, the average daily coal consumption of the six major power generation groups is 759200 tons/day, compared with 682600 tons/day in the same period in 2016 and 628700 tons/day in the same period in 2015. The daily consumption in 2017 is 11% higher than that in 2016 and 21% higher than that in 2015. The high coal consumption of power plants is the main reason for the high price of thermal coal.
Judging from the seasonal changes in coal consumption of power plants, the weather will turn cooler after autumn, and the daily consumption of civil electricity will decline seasonally. In September 2016, the average daily coal consumption of the six major power generation groups was
572500 tons/day, August 2016 was 704000 tons/day, the average daily coal consumption in September 2016 decreased by 18.7 compared with August, and the average daily coal consumption in September 2015 decreased by 19% compared with August. According to the data analysis of previous years, the daily consumption in September is at least 15% lower than that in August, so it is expected that the coal consumption of power plants in September 2017 will drop sharply compared with August.
Environmental policies affect industrial coal consumption
Different from previous years, this year, under the strict environmental protection policy, some downstream factories are facing overhaul and rectification, which further reduces the demand for thermal coal. Judging from the current environmental protection requirements, according to the "Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei and Surrounding Areas 2017 Air Pollution Prevention and Control Work Plan", this year's "26" cities have achieved negative growth in total coal consumption. Comprehensively strengthen the management of scattered coal in urban villages, urban-rural junctions and rural areas, and complete the construction of "no coal areas" by the end of October in Beijing, Tianjin, Langfang, and Baoding. By the end of October, the "2 26" city completed the task of replacing coal with electricity and coal with gas. By the end of October 2017, all 44000 coal-fired boilers included in the 2017 phase-out list will be "cleared".
In addition, environmental protection also requires some industrial enterprises to limit production and reduce emissions. The plan clearly requires cement, casting and other industries to continue to fully implement off-peak production. Shijiazhuang, Tangshan, Handan, Anyang and other key cities, heating season steel production capacity is limited to 50%, around the heating season electrolytic aluminum plant production limit of more than 30%, alumina enterprises production limit of about 30%, carbon enterprises can not reach the special emission limit, all stop production, reach the special emission limit, production limit of more than 50%, etc. Strict environmental policies mean that the next industrial electricity consumption will fall sharply, and the demand for thermal coal from power plants will continue to decline.
Coal supply better than last year
Judging from the supply of thermal coal, the supply in 2017 has significantly improved compared with the same period in 2016. From January to July 2017, the national raw coal output was 2006.06 million tons, compared with 1900.799 million tons in the same period in 2016, an increase of 5.54. According to the research feedback, the supply-side reform in 2016 proposed that coal mines should arrange production according to 276-day working days, while after the beginning of 2017, coal mine production will basically be carried out according to 330-day working days, and coal mine output will increase rapidly.
Recently, the National Development and Reform Commission proposed that through some construction projects put into operation one after another, the production capacity of some high-quality coal mines will be re-approved, and it is estimated that about 0.2 billion -0.3 billion tons of coal production capacity can be added. It is reported that Shenhua Halwusu and Baori Shille open-pit mines, which suspended production in the early stage, will also resume production, which means that the supply in the later stage will not be similar to that in 2016.
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